UK Smoking Ban Could Shut 7,700 Shops, Eliminating 70,000 Jobs
A new report warns that Labour leader Keir Starmer’s proposed Tobacco and Vapes Bill could result in the closure of approximately 7,700 corner shops and off licences, impacting 70,000 jobs across the UK.
The legislation, aiming to establish a generational sales ban (GSB) on tobacco, would incrementally raise the legal age for tobacco purchase each year, eventually leading to a complete prohibition. Dr Maged Ali from the University of Essex highlights severe economic consequences in his report titled “The Backbone of the UK Under Attack.”
Dr Ali stresses the bill’s potential harm, stating, “At a time when the UK economy needs private sector empowerment, restrictive regulations like the GSB impose additional burdens on retailers, weakening the economic structure irreversibly.”
The report predicts substantial financial repercussions, with nearly 8,000 stores facing closure and approximately 70,100 retail employees losing their jobs over the next three decades. Additionally, it suggests that the government risks losing around £23.8 billion in tax revenues as consumers shift towards illicit markets to meet demand.
Enforcing the proposed ban could also cost taxpayers an estimated £828 million, resources that critics argue could be better allocated elsewhere, especially amid the ongoing cost-of-living crisis affecting convenience stores and high streets.
Dr Ali labels the proposed policy as a “lose-lose-lose” situation. He explains, “Stores will close, government revenues will diminish, and the black market will thrive.”
Regional impacts would disproportionately affect Scotland and Wales, where store closures could reach 5% and 3.4%, respectively. The report emphasizes the need for balanced regulation rather than outright prohibition, advocating for measured approaches that support public health without devastating economic impacts.
Despite criticism, a government spokesperson defended the legislation, describing it as essential to creating the first smoke-free generation and breaking cycles of addiction. They also noted that government measures, such as business rate relief and guidance programs, are intended to support small businesses through these regulatory transitions.
The bill awaits its second reading in the House of Lords later this month, where its economic and social implications will continue to face scrutiny.
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