Ukraine Cigarette Prices Set for Continuous Rise Through 2028
Largest Hike Expected in 2025 Due to Excise Tax Adjustments
Cigarette prices in Ukraine are projected to increase continuously from 2025 through 2028, driven by planned hikes in excise taxes. According to the April 2025 Inflation Report from the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the most significant price jump is expected this year, partly to compensate for lower-than-targeted tax revenues in the previous year.
While the latest excise tax increase took effect on April 1, 2025, manufacturers reportedly began raising prices earlier. The NBU report indicates that from April 1 until the end of 2025, an increased coefficient of 1.1 (effectively 110%) will be applied to the excise tax calculation. This adjustment aims to ensure the excise tax component reaches the normative 60% share of the average retail price, a target missed last year.
Retail prices are expected to rise gradually as existing stocks with older tax stamps deplete. From 2026 to 2028, excise tax increases, and consequently cigarette prices, are anticipated to grow more moderately.
Data from Ukraine’s State Statistics Service shows significant price rises already occurred. Last year, premium cigarette prices increased by 23.4% (avg. 118.7 UAH/pack by year-end). Prices climbed another 7.8% by early 2025 (avg. 128 UAH/pack), with further increases anticipated throughout the year. Despite these rising costs, alcohol and tobacco still account for roughly 8% of average Ukrainian consumer spending.
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