Australia’s Smoking Drop Masks 80% Illicit Nicotine Market
The Coalition of Asia Pacific Tobacco Harm Reduction Advocates (CAPHRA) has warned that Australia’s falling smoking rates hide a rapidly expanding black market. This shift occurred as federal policies pushed consumers toward illegal suppliers instead of regulated harm-reduction alternatives.
Australia’s daily smoking rate among people aged 14 and older fell to 5.6% in 2025, down from 8.3% in 2022–23 and 19.5% in 2001. However, new Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) analysis suggests that illicit products now account for about 80% of all cigarettes and vapes consumed nationwide.
| Metric | Historical Data | 2025 Status |
|---|---|---|
| Daily Smoking Rate (Ages 14+) | 19.5% (2001) / 8.3% (2022-23) | 5.6% |
| Illicit Nicotine Market Share | 12% (2017) | ~80% |
“Australia is congratulating itself on lower smoking rates while presiding over one of the fastest-growing illicit nicotine markets in the world,” said Nancy Loucas, CAPHRA’s Executive Coordinator. Loucas noted that when the majority of vapes and cigarettes originate from the black market, public health protections fail.
High excise taxes and tight legal restrictions on safer nicotine alternatives have fueled this illegal trade. Economists warn that tobacco taxes have passed a tipping point, driving demand for cheaper, unregulated black-market goods rather than encouraging people to quit. This unregulated supply exposes adults to products with no age checks, no manufacturing standards, and no quality control.
CAPHRA contrasts Australia’s approach with New Zealand’s strategy. New Zealand combines smoking cessation campaigns and advertising bans with regulated access to reduced-risk products, reducing tobacco consumption per adult faster than most OECD nations.
To address the black market, CAPHRA advises Australia to:
- Keep taxes and regulations below the threshold that triggers black-market growth.
- Integrate harm reduction into tobacco control strategies.
- Ensure adults who smoke have legal, regulated access to lower-risk nicotine alternatives.
- Poland Proposes Vape Tax Hike: Devices and E-Liquids to Cost More - July 21, 2026
- Australia’s Smoking Drop Masks 80% Illicit Nicotine Market - July 21, 2026
- Low-Nicotine Cigarettes Do Not Cause More Smoking, Study Finds - July 20, 2026
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