The Australian federal government has refuted research findings from Roy Morgan that claimed smoking rates increased among young Australians following the ban on recreational vape sales in 2024. Federal Health Minister Mark Butler rejected the report, which asserted the legislation had “failed to reduce overall rates of smoking and vaping,” stating that government-led research shows the opposite is true.
Butler acknowledged initial concerns about a “squeezed balloon effect” where shutting down vape access might lead to more young people smoking cigarettes. However, he said research from the “Gen Vape” project and the South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute indicates “that’s not the case,” with data showing “fewer young people are vaping and fewer young people are smoking.” He raised issues with the Roy Morgan research, noting it covered a period pre-dating the full implementation of the vape reforms and surveyed a different age cohort than the government’s studies.
The Roy Morgan report faced controversy after an initial version was reportedly “scrubbed” from the internet before being restored with a disclaimer acknowledging it “raised more questions than it answered.”
Instead, the government highlighted the success of its school-based “OurFutures Vaping Prevention Education Program.” Findings from the program, published in The Lancet, reported that students who participated were 65% less likely to have used vapes after 12 months. Butler reiterated the government’s rationale for the vape ban, citing Australian research showing that high school students who vaped were about five times more likely to take up smoking. The OurFutures program will now be rolled out across Australian schools until 2028, with more findings expected next year.