BVTE Forecasts Higher Tobacco Sales in 2024 Due to Tax Increase

BVTE forecast Germany tobacco sales

The German Federal Association of the Tobacco Industry and Novel Products (BVTE) expects cigarette sales to exceed the previous year’s figure of 64 billion units in 2024. However, this increase does not reflect higher consumption or a rise in the number of smokers, according to BVTE.

While official figures from the Federal Statistical Office for the full year 2024 are not yet available, data from January to November shows a 3.6% increase in cigarette sales based on tax stamp purchases compared to the same period in the previous year. Fine-cut tobacco for rolling or stuffing also saw an 8.6% increase, with 23,725 tons taxed by November. Cigars and cigarillos experienced a 4.3% rise, with 2.2 billion units taxed in the last 11 months.

However, BVTE CEO Jan Mücke emphasizes that these figures reflect tax stamp orders for production and should not be equated with actual sales reaching consumers or an increased smoking rate. The higher tax stamp purchases this year are primarily due to the tobacco tax increase scheduled for January 1, 2025, prompting early orders for the coming year.

Mücke notes that tobacco consumption in Germany has been declining for years and that a portion of the taxed tobacco products flows out of the country. Last year, at least 1 billion German cigarettes were sold abroad. French consumers have been purchasing cheaper cigarettes in Germany for years, while Dutch customers bought over 50% more cigarettes in Germany in the past year compared to 2022, amounting to 290 million units with an upward trend. Currently, a pack of cigarettes costs around €11 in the Netherlands, where cigarette sales in supermarkets and kiosks have been banned since July.

German cigarette consumers also make cross-border purchases, with 19.8% of cigarette packs not taxed in Germany, reaching pre-pandemic levels. Poland accounts for 44% of these purchases, with the country planning a 25% increase in cigarette taxes starting in March 2025. Only 14% of cigarette purchases come from the Czech Republic, which already raised cigarette taxes by 10% at the beginning of the year and plans a further 5% increase next year. The price of a premium cigarette in the Czech Republic has risen from €5.12 in 2022 to €6.54 per pack currently.

The tax on e-cigarette liquids in Germany will increase to €0.26 per milliliter in January 2025. From January to November, 1,156 thousand liters were taxed for e-cigarettes, with tax stamp purchases remaining stable at 1.4% above the previous year’s level for the same period.

Mücke notes that, unlike traditional cigarettes, no classic cross-border shopping for e-cigarettes has been observed so far. However, he warns that the illegal influx of products could rapidly increase if rigid restrictions, such as a ban on menthol or fruit flavors for liquids, are considered politically in Germany. Estonia serves as a negative example, where e-cigarette liquids may only be sold with tobacco and menthol flavors, leading to an increase in the smoking rate of tobacco products from 18% in 2021 to 24% in 2023.

Mücke criticizes Estonia’s approach, stating that smoking rates cannot be lowered in this manner. Countries that do not overregulate potentially less harmful products, such as Sweden, can boast an impressive track record, with only 4.6% of the population reporting daily smoking.

Matthew Ma
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