UK Study Finds Teen Vapers Smoking at 1970s Levels

A new study has delivered a stark warning to public health officials and parents: teenagers in the UK who vape are now as likely to smoke traditional cigarettes as their peers were in the 1970s, a period often seen as the peak of smoking culture. The research, led by the University of Michigan and published in the prestigious journal Tobacco Control, suggests that the rise of e-cigarettes may be providing a “gateway” to tobacco addiction for a new generation, potentially reversing decades of hard-won progress in reducing youth smoking rates. This finding comes at a critical time, as the UK government implements stricter regulations, including a ban on disposable vapes, aimed at curbing the youth vaping epidemic.

The Core Finding: Vaping Linked to a Resurgence in Smoking Likelihood

The long-term intergenerational study drew on data from three nationally representative birth cohorts of UK teens born in 1958, 1970, and 2001. By analyzing various risk factors, the researchers calculated the likelihood of an average 16- or 17-year-old starting to smoke cigarettes across different eras. While the overall likelihood of a teen smoking has plummeted over the past 50 years – from 30% for those born in 1958 to just 9.5% for those born in 2001 – the introduction of vaping has created a troubling new dynamic.

The study’s most striking conclusion, based on the most recent cohort data from 2018, is that a third (33%) of UK teenagers who vape will go on to start smoking tobacco. This figure is remarkably similar to the overall teen smoking prevalence observed in 1974 (also 33%). In stark contrast, the likelihood of a 17-year-old starting to smoke in 2018 if they did not vape was just 1.5%.

The researchers concluded, “The decline in the likelihood of cigarette smoking is waning for youth who have used e-cigarettes and has reversed for those currently using e-cigarettes.” In other words, while anti-smoking efforts have been incredibly successful for non-vaping teens, the rise of e-cigarettes appears to be creating a new pathway to combustible tobacco for a significant subset of young people.

The “Gateway” Debate: Is Vaping Causing Teens to Smoke?

The findings have reignited the fierce debate over whether vaping acts as a causal “gateway” to smoking. Public health experts are deeply concerned.

Dr. Jessica Mongilio, from the Centre for the Study of Drugs, Alcohol, Smoking and Health at the University of Michigan and an author of the study, acknowledged that while overall nicotine use rates are still declining, the pace has slowed. “The plateauing of those declines is likely due to the uptick in e-cigarette use, especially by teens and young adults,” she said. “Although this study doesn’t examine vaping as a gateway or catalyst to cigarette smoking, there is a substantial amount of research that does come to that conclusion. For teenagers, it does appear that vaping leads to cigarette smoking.”

Steve Turner, president of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health, described the research as “incredibly concerning.” He stated, “A major concern about children and young people vaping is that this age group is particularly sensitive to developing a lifelong addiction to the nicotine contained in the vapes… We have all worked so hard to stop young people from smoking and vaping may have undone decades of work. Smoking continues to be the leading cause of preventable illness and death in the UK. We all must take urgent steps to prevent young people from being drawn into smoking by vaping.”

Read more: Study Finds Vaping is Not A Gateway to Smoking

The Counter-Argument: A “Common Liability” Model

However, some experts caution against drawing a direct causal link, arguing that the relationship might be explained by a “common liability” model. This theory suggests that young people who are already at a higher risk of engaging in risky behaviors (due to factors like poverty, poor education, or personality traits) are simply more likely to try *both* vaping and smoking, without one necessarily causing the other.

Professor Peter Hajek, a prominent advocate of vaping as a quitting aid from Queen Mary University of London, offered this perspective: “It is more likely that the finding just shows that people attracted to vapes are also attracted to cigarettes, in the same way that compared to teetotallers, drinkers of white wine are more likely to also try red wine.”

The Study’s Rebuttal

Anticipating this critique, the study’s authors specifically examined this possibility. They analyzed a common set of childhood risk factors across the cohorts, including alcohol use, engagement with school, impulse control, and parental socioeconomic and smoking behaviors. Dr. Mongilio directly addressed the “common liability” argument, stating that their findings did not fully support it. “That is a very common perception, but it doesn’t ring entirely true,” she said. “We looked at the probabilities for high-risk and low-risk teens and found that e-cigarette use was really driving the high probabilities. That is, high-risk teens who had never used e-cigarettes still had pretty low probabilities of cigarette smoking.” This suggests that even among teens predisposed to risky behaviors, vaping appears to be a significant independent factor that dramatically increases their likelihood of starting to smoke cigarettes.

The UK’s Regulatory Response and the Youth Vaping Context

These findings are particularly relevant given the UK’s current regulatory climate. The government has become increasingly concerned about the rise in youth vaping. It has been illegal to sell vapes to under-18s since 2015, yet access remains a problem. Figures from Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) for 2025 show that 21% of 11- to 17-year-olds in Great Britain have tried vaping, an estimated 1.1 million children. The NHS also warns that vapers can become addicted within days, and nicotine can negatively affect concentration, learning ability, and mental health in young people.

In response, a ban on disposable vapes came into effect in June 2025, specifically targeting the cheap, colorful, and flavored devices most popular with youth. The broader Tobacco and Vapes Bill, currently progressing through Parliament, aims to give the government further powers to restrict vape flavors, packaging, and in-store displays to make them less appealing to children. It also includes the landmark “smoke-free generation” policy, which would make it illegal for anyone born on or after January 1, 2009, to ever legally purchase tobacco products.

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Conclusion: A Critical Juncture for Public Health

The research from the University of Michigan adds a critical, data-driven perspective to the UK’s public health strategy. While the overall decline in youth smoking over the past 50 years is a monumental achievement, these findings suggest that the rise of e-cigarettes poses a genuine threat to that progress. The data indicates that for a significant number of teenagers, vaping is not an alternative to smoking but a precursor to it, re-creating a pathway to tobacco addiction that public health efforts have worked for decades to close.

While the debate between “gateway effect” and “common liability” will continue, this study provides compelling evidence that vaping is strongly associated with an increased likelihood of smoking among teens, even when accounting for other risk factors. As UK lawmakers focus on reducing e-cigarette use among current young users and preventing its uptake by others, this research underscores the urgency and importance of their efforts. The challenge for policymakers will be to implement regulations that successfully protect young people from both vaping and smoking, without inadvertently undermining the role that regulated e-cigarettes can play in helping existing adult smokers quit the far more deadly habit of combustible tobacco.

News source: Third of UK teenagers who vape will go on to start smoking, research shows

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Matthew Ma

Marketing at Ecigator

With over a decade of experience in the e-cigarette industry, Matthew Ma is a seasoned expert in both the manufacturing and usage aspects of vaping products. His extensive background has provided him with a deep understanding of the intricacies and evolving dynamics of e-cigarettes.