Innovation, Not Bans: Key to Smoke-Free Europe by 2040
Europe’s ambitious goal of becoming smoke-free by 2040 is drifting out of reach under current tobacco control strategies, according to experts gathered at a recent Brussels event hosted by We Are Innovation. The global network, promoting evidence-based public health approaches, concluded that without embracing harm-reduction technologies like vapes, nicotine pouches, and heated tobacco, the European Union risks missing its target by more than half a century.
The discussion highlighted the persistent gap between political aspiration and practical reality in the EU, where nearly one in four adults still smokes – a figure that has barely budged in four years. In stark contrast, Sweden stands on the brink of becoming Europe’s first smoke-free nation, with just over five percent of its citizens still smoking and the lowest lung cancer deaths in Europe. This success, speakers argued, is not due to bans or heavy taxation, but to a “pragmatic regulation” that makes safer nicotine alternatives accessible, acceptable, and affordable.
Tetiana Rak, Chief Operating Officer of We Are Innovation, explained that Sweden’s “human-centred” model has cut smoking by 65% since 2008, leading to 36% fewer lung-cancer deaths and 21% fewer smoking-related deaths overall. This was achieved by allowing adult consumers clear information about relative risks and easy access to alternatives like snus and, more recently, nicotine pouches. “As oral nicotine use rose, smoking fell almost in mirror image,” Rak noted.
This “3A framework” – accessibility, acceptability, and affordability – has also yielded positive results elsewhere. In the Czech Republic, smoking rates dropped seven percentage points in three years after taxation was adjusted according to product risk and innovative products were included in national cessation guidelines. Greece, a country with a deeply entrenched smoking culture, saw smoking prevalence fall by six points within three years after shifting its approach in 2020.
Greek MEP Emmanouil Fragkos questioned whether the EU would follow evidence or “ideology and prohibition.” Swedish physician Dr. Anders Milton criticized the “institutional inertia” of European health policy, stating, “EU health authorities seem to be against everything except cigarettes. They oppose snus, they oppose vaping, they oppose heated tobacco, all of which save lives. That is a mistake.” He argued that consumer choice, enabled by credible alternatives, can achieve what prohibition cannot, and that taxation alone is not the answer.
Rak further emphasized that innovation and public health are natural allies, not opposing forces. “We are in a battle between deadly combustion and safer alternatives,” she said, suggesting that a smoke-free future will be achieved not by banning everything, but by inventing better choices. We Are Innovation’s modeling suggests that adopting the Swedish model could bring Europe’s smoke-free target forward by more than fifty years from the current trajectory of 2116.
The message from Brussels is clear: Europe faces a choice. It can continue with bans and taxes, or it can embrace innovation and evidence-based harm reduction to accelerate change and save lives.
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