Kazakhstan's Vape Ban Fails to Cut Smoking Rates, Study Finds

A new analytical study from Kazakhstan’s “Strategy” Public Fund has concluded that the country’s increasingly strict, prohibition-focused anti-tobacco measures have failed to significantly reduce the number of smokers. The research, which analyzed regulatory changes and smoking prevalence from recent years, argues that a “zero-tolerance” approach that equates all nicotine products has pushed the market into the shadows, cost the state budget, and stalled public health progress. Instead, the fund advocates for adopting a risk-differentiated, harm reduction strategy, citing positive results in countries like the UK, New Zealand, Sweden, and Japan.

Gulmira Ileuova, President of the “Strategy” Public Fund, explained that the study, conducted from June to July 2025, compared Kazakhstan’s regulatory environment with international experiences. Over the past 3-4 years, Kazakhstan has intensified its anti-smoking measures, including stricter fines, expanding the list of prohibited items, banning the open display of cigarettes, increasing excise taxes, raising the purchase age to 21, and, crucially, banning the import and sale of vapes (e-cigarettes).

However, an analysis of official statistics shows that despite these measures, the proportion of adult smokers in Kazakhstan has remained stable at around 18-20%, with daily smoking rates hovering between 15-18% from 2022-2025. The number of cigarettes smoked daily in 2025 (nearly 12 million) indicates that behavioral smoking habits persist. The study’s authors argue that this stagnation is a predictable outcome of a purely prohibitionist policy.

The Unintended Consequences of a Vape Ban

The research highlights the vape ban as a prime example of ineffective policy. A survey conducted as part of the study asked smokers if they had quit after the e-cigarette ban was introduced. The results were telling:

52% continued to use vapes (presumably from the illicit market).
28% switched to heated tobacco products.
10% returned to smoking traditional cigarettes.
Only **5%** quit smoking altogether.

The study notes that while vape consumption among 18-20 year olds has decreased, the primary users are now citizens aged 30-49, especially women. Vapes, removed from legal store shelves, have migrated to online marketplaces, messengers, and Telegram channels. This has driven prices up two to three times, making them a product for more affluent citizens, while others may revert to more dangerous forms of smoking like traditional cigarettes. The researchers also pointed to a similar failure with the 10-year-old ban on hookahs (shisha), which has not reduced but rather increased their use.

“Why does Kazakhstan love to introduce repressive measures?!” the public fund’s representatives questioned, pointing out that the state failed to conduct proper research on vapes before banning them.

Lessons from Harm Reduction Success Stories

The “Strategy” Public Fund’s report contrasts Kazakhstan’s experience with that of four countries that have successfully implemented harm reduction concepts, leading to significant declines in smoking rates.

“The results of our research confirm the ineffectiveness of the implemented prohibitions in the field of tobacco smoking in Kazakhstan,” said Gulmira Ileuova. “It is harm reduction and a focus on alternative smokeless tobacco products that allow for a sustainable reduction in the number of smokers.”

The report highlights:

United Kingdom: Citing research from England showing cigarettes are 95% more harmful than vapes, the report notes that the UK has achieved record-low smoking rates (down approx. 41% from 20.2% in 2011 to 11.9% in 2023) alongside a legal, regulated vaping market used for smoking cessation.
New Zealand: After an initial full vape ban in 2022 proved ineffective, the country not only reversed the ban but actively encouraged the use of vapes as a quit-smoking tool.
Sweden: By embracing a “smokeless” model centered on snus and nicotine pouches, Sweden boasts the lowest smoking rates and related disease levels in the EU. Daily smoking rates fell from 6.4% in 2019 to around 5% in 2024.
Japan: Using a market-driven approach, Japan has seen a massive shift towards heated tobacco products. This has been accompanied by a more than 50% drop in cigarette sales over a decade and a decline in adult smoking prevalence from 19.3% in 2016 to 16.8% in 2022.

The Need for a New, Comprehensive Strategy

The “Strategy” Public Fund concludes that a purely prohibitionist policy in Kazakhstan is not achieving its goal of reducing smoking. Instead, consumption is shifting to the illicit market or to other alternatives without proper regulation or public education. The report’s authors argue that the state’s failure to provide reliable information about the relative risks of different products has allowed dangerous myths to flourish, such as the idea that hookahs are harmless, when they can contain more carbon monoxide and tar than alternative products.

While acknowledging the strengths of some of Kazakhstan’s efforts, such as the Tobacco 21 law and the ban on open cigarette displays, the fund strongly recommends a move towards a comprehensive, evidence-based mix of policies. This should include risk-differentiated regulation, where less harmful products like vapes are legally available but strictly regulated, providing an off-ramp for adult smokers while still protecting youth.

“Strategies for reducing health harm are based on giving people a choice between cigarettes and safer vapes,” Ileuova stated. The fund suggests that before implementing bans, thorough research is essential. A balanced approach that includes education, strong enforcement against illicit trade, and regulated access to less harmful alternatives is needed to achieve a real and sustainable reduction in smoking rates in Kazakhstan.

Reference: Почему антитабачная кампания привела к росту курильщиков в Казахстане

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Matthew Ma

Marketing at Ecigator

With over a decade of experience in the e-cigarette industry, Matthew Ma is a seasoned expert in both the manufacturing and usage aspects of vaping products. His extensive background has provided him with a deep understanding of the intricacies and evolving dynamics of e-cigarettes.